Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Old McDonald had a farm

And on his farm he had some freaking cloth pants that dropped last time we downed Loken.

So we went back in to try and farm loken for my new Axe and got the same exact spell power cloth pants that dropped last time. Chaos Brewing now has a Boomkin and Holy Pally wearing the same pants. Coincidence. Meh, maybe.

There are some who question whether the loot tables are truly random. Skeleton Jack talks about it in this post. As someone who works with statistics in very large datasets all day long I disagree.

Warning Statistics Lesson Incoming!!!!!!

(I'll spare the actual math and only deal with the concepts, cuz I'm lazy like that)

Let's get 5 people to toss a coin 5 times each. We can calculate the probability that one of them will get heads all 5 times.

Now let's get 50 people to toss a coin 5 times each. We should have a higher probability that one person will get heads all 5 times.

Now let's expand that out to 5 million people tossing a coin 5 times. I'd wager a lot more than you think will hit heads 5 times in a row.

I'd also wager that it was someone other than you.

This is the same phenomena you see in the lottery. Eventually someone always wins against astronomical odds. But the chance that someone is you is astronomical.

Now consider how many times a player has defeated Heroic Loken twice. There are 11 million players in Wrath right now. Well over a million have level 80 toons. There is a large base for this to occur.

I just got unlucky so far.

Two things about the loot table to consider.

I saw a Blizzard post a year or so ago stating that they seed their loot tables when a mob spawns with a time/date stamp. The second the first person zones into an instance, the loot tables are determined. They claimed class composition had nothing to do with the seeds.

What we don't know a priori are whether the tables are weighted to favor some drops over others and whether there are any factors that can modify the weights.

For example, if there are 5 items in a loot table they should each show up 20% of the time if they are not weighted. I would assume Blizzard does weight the loot tables so some items would show up more frequently than 20% of the time while others less frequently. I would also assume they change their weightings periodically.

OK, so back to Loken, he still didn't drop my Axe so I will have to keep going back. Maybe Maxenna will give me a wraith spear tonight since the RNG doesn't appear to love me anymore.

1 comment:

  1. They do weight some items with lower or higher % drop rates. They are not always even. However that is not a flat rule applied to all drops. Some are an even flat rate.